Saturday, September 13, 2008

Bradley Effect

I am convinced that the so-called "Bradley Effect," where polls show a black candidate polling better than his actual results, has less to do with supposed "hidden (white) racism" and, instead, is a function of blacks who want to support their race in public but then vote their values in the privacy of the booth.

Any thoughts?

17 comments:

Anonymous said...

Let's hope.

hopeful lee said...

it spring eternal ya know

jmb said...

I googled around a little on Bradley Effect and couldn't find enough concrete data other than that votes for blacks do not accurately reflect their polls.

Well, that's all pretty vague. And it never happens to women or whites? And what, exactly, are the numbers. And what other variables are taken into account. Is this effect for local, state or fed elections?

So, when I hear about the Bradley Effect as if it's a done deal. That it's an actual real thing. I wonder if it isn't the herd mentality of the press/pols. Someone comes up with Bradley Effect as an explanation and it becomes annointed as true.

So...color me skeptical. I have no data that shows there is such a thing as the Bradley Effect.

That said. The blacks I have known would not vote differently than they polled.

One of the things that occurs to me is that if polls show your guy is WAAAAY ahead, then why bother go and vote. Let the others do it, it's guaranteed.

By the way, I'm wildly against polls. I consider them manipulative and misleading and will not participate. I also know people that will deliberately lie on a poll.

ajgentile said...

Also consider the fact that a poll is a dialogue (with a pollster) versus voting which is essentially anonymous.

Here in Hollywood, it's "cool" support Obama. He's the hip, black guy. We have have a herd mentality. (Especially those of us who work in the entertainment industry which is an awful lot like high school). When your phone rings, you might give the answer that let's you sit at the cool lunch table.

But when you get in that voting booth, away from peer pressure, polls, and the pontifications of the media -- it's just you and a lever. Lots of folks who publicly supported Obama are going to privately vote McCain.

My $.02

jmb said...

hmmm...I was reading some comments on AmericanThinker about people feeling threatened in blue communities. And they didn't just feel disliked, they felt their physical safety and that of their possessions was threatened.

So, who knows, with a phone "poll" call, who's really calling. So maybe it is an effect. And in that case it would affect blacks at least as much if not more than whites.

I'd still love to see some hard numbers.

jmb said...

re: the AmericanThinker comments...people were afraid to put conservative bumper stickers on their cars if they were in liberal neighborhoods. When they did, they reported car being keyed, threating gestures, etc. It was a fear for their physical safety rather than a fear of being thought a racist.

Would you put a McCain bumper sticker on your car and park it in a liberal neighborhood? Would the racial characteristics of that neighborhood make a difference? And what about the economic class of that neighborhood? What about the age characteristic? Interesting test if you've got a bunch of cars to be sacrificed.

So maybe fearing harmful reprisal rather than fearing being called a racist or an oreo is what's behind the 'Bradley Effect'.

I still think, until formal study is done, the most you might say about the Bradley Effect is that polls of black candidates don't accurately reflect voting results.

For that to be a meaningful statement, the statistics would have to be presented, plus all the variables (such as racial % of voting communities, is it an incumbent running, etc.)

So, on a gut level Evan, I think you're on to something here. I know where I wouldn't dare park my sign w/ a conservative bumper sticker. And it has nothing to do with my worrying about being called a racist.

I report, U deny said...

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free mumia... pull the switch! said...

Are you sure it isn't the "Barack Effect"... 90% of Blacks seem to vote for blacks... if polling can be believed.

even fat KKKarl!!!!! said...

hahhahahaha...unbelievable ...

Rove, though, made some news of his own when he conceded that McCain, in his attack ads, had "gone one step too far, and [is] sort of attributing to Obama things that are, you know, beyond the 100 percent truth test.”

razigwup said...

Confused says: Are you sure it isn't the "Barack Effect"... 90% of Blacks seem to vote for blacks... if polling can be believed.

No...OVER 90% vote for DEMOCRATS rather than for the racist party...they would not vote for a black Republican in anything like those numbers.

FJ said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
FJ said...

If 90% of whites voted Republican, you might have a case... but that isn't happening. So, the only logical conclusion one can arrive at is that Democrats are black racists.

And given the current anointed one's dalliances with one Jeremiah Wright...

Q.E.D.

jihadi democrat said...

Jeremiah? Nah, he's a freedom fighter!

Evan Sayet said...

Of course Democrats are racists. They're also sexists and Jew-haters.

This is what "identity politics" is all about. If someone's thinking and behavior is defined by their skin color (for example) then race defines that person. That IS racism. Every time you hear a leftist say that someone like Colin Powell "isn't really black" because he doesn't think and act the way black people are supposed to, that is proof of their racism.

Dora said...

If 90% of whites voted Republican, you might have a case... but that isn't happening. So, the only logical conclusion one can arrive at is that Democrats are black racists.

So why would blacks vote 90%+ for WHITE Democrats too, FJ?

Dora said...

Of course Democrats are racists. They're also sexists and Jew-haters.

And yet women vote more for Dems, Dems have more women in power (senators, reps, governors), have the first female secretary of state, first female speaker of the house, first female VP candidate, first female Presidential candidate, support equal pay legislation, supported the ERA, etc. etc. etc.

And the Jews! They vote for Dems like 80%+. Most of the Jewish reps and Senators are Dems also.

Why, oh why, are the blacks, Jews and women voting Dem, if they Dems are racist, sexist anti-Semites?

noose said...

Well...uh...it's pretty clear them nigrahs, wimmin and joos should never had the vote in the fus place...then they wouldnt been able to vote like that...

Allow us to take you back to the storied past, and we'll show you just what we mean at the inaugural lynching party and pogrom where the wimminfolks serve up...uh, you know...home made stuff and keeps they yaps shet while we has our fun with them upstarts.